Would somebody please explain to me what is going on in Zimbabwe?
Just a few weeks ago I was at a meeting discussing festival opportunities for the new and improved country, with everybody extremely upbeat and hopeful for Zimbabwe’s future. However, whilst there is clearly a far more buoyant economic situation owing to the replacement of Zimbabwe’s worthless currency by the US dollar, which has resulted in schools and hospitals reopening, it seems that not much else has changed as yet.
Look at this note my father has acquired…..farmers were exchanging several of these for eggs and bread not long ago:-
I understand that there is talk of an early general election but how are they ever going to ensure a fair democratic poll and how will the hosting of the World Cup in SA affect the results? Clearly Mugabe won’t be around forever (he celebrates his 86th birthday next week) but at this stage he still seems to be very much in control with the Economist reporting this week that “apart from the economy, the situation on the ground has barely changed at all, with Mr Mugabe holding on to the reins of real power. White owned farms continue to be invaded. Human rights and MDC activitsts are still being beaten up and arrested. MDC provincial governors have still not been allowed to take up their posts and Mr Mugabe continues to control the security forces”.
Anyone have a clue?? According to the latest rankings of the Economist Intelligence Unit which ranked 140 global cities on a criteria ranging from , stability, health care, culture, education , environment and infrastructure, Vancouver was number one and Harare , capital of Zimbabwe was judged the most unliveable city in the world.
There is a new law coming into effect on the 1st March which will force white-owned companies to surrender 51% of their shareholdings to black Zimbabweans. Analysts predict that it will halt billions of dollars of investment plans.
February 24th, 2010 at 11:31 am
I am from SA and as far as I know the zim dollar is still in play along with foreign currency (there is rumour of introducing the Rand there too – next step is probably to do away with the border control altogether). Since the MDC have been allowed in, there was a renewed hope but at grassroots level this is nothing more than lipservice. Mugabe is still terrorising the country and the feeling is now that Morgan Tsvangarai is less than useless if not as corrupt himself. White owned farms to continue to be raided. There are more zimbabweans in SA than there are in their own country and the basic amenities are still not available. Nothing has changed! The soccer world cup ain’t going to do a thing for Zim and there is never going to be a thing like a free and fair election in Zim as long as Mugabe is around and my feeling is even after that.
February 24th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Thanks Jay – really interesting to hear The Economist’s concerns confirmed from someone closer to home! Lx
February 24th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Yes it has gone quiet over there as far as news is concerned. The Children’s Mother’s cousins were farmers out there. A dreadful waste of a wonderful country.
Tsvangarai does seem to have ‘gone native’ as it were…!
February 24th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Well, yes he doesn’t seem to be very influential at present – prob something to do with losing his wife in a terrible car crash and child in a drowning incident….
February 24th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
OK. This is coming from an economic perspective. When I attended a conference last September on Zimbabwe there were many hopeful signs that were emerging as the death of the Zim dollar a year ago deprived the Mugabe government of its access to borrowing and financial power. Zimbabwe started to be viewed as a fantastic business opportunity because all the individuals and businesses had their debts erased and South African business people were eager to re-engage with their partners. However, the tyrannical regime seems now to have re-grouped and according to the Telegraph, the Zim army recently seized a large diamond field, killing hundreds of people in the process. As well as seizing the diamond mine, the article described the construction of a large airstrip on the site. The inference is that Mugabe is planning to trade diamonds for arms and the airstrip is built to receive the shipments of arms. The fear is that a bloody coup would follow. Maybe, as these plans have become known, this awful scenario can be prevented. But the optimism that was seeping back to this crippled nation has been confronted again with the agonising reality that president Mugabe has no intention to cede power.
February 24th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
That is all very scary then for the immediate future of Zim especially if there is an election as early as April. Lx
February 24th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
I don’t know enough about our own politics, let alone those of foreign policy. But it’s not good is it.
February 25th, 2010 at 10:02 am
I am an African investment banker and can give you my opinion. The power sharing agreement is working for the wrong reasons. Mugabe and Tsvangirai hate one another and that keeps them in check. The situation resembles a hung parliament in that extreme actions are averted. The banks are slowly recovering following their total loss of Zim dollar deposits. Platinum, gold, tobacco and industrial production have improved. However the country is stil in a desperate situation and the recovery is slower than it could be. 5 to 7% growth is plausible which is better than contraction. Prices are deeply cheap so investors are rightly paying attention.
February 25th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
OH. Thanks African Banker – so now I see why people are choosing to invest but that’s explained a lot Lx
February 25th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Regarding the Vlog; if I can do it, anyone can. My camera is a little camcorder, nothing fancy I don’t think. I managed to upload easily enough, but it took a long time. I’m now looking forward to doing another one!
Thanks for your comment xx
February 25th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
and another reponse that came in via email:-
“Having seen Morgan Tsangari when he was in London last year I was encouraged by his incredible optimism about the future and his clear vision he has for a better Zim.
Considering the historic treatment that he has had from the Zanu PF his view is that it should be no more difficult to share power in Zim than it was for the ANC and the NP during South Africas power sharing 20 years ago.
The way that the international community has dealt with Zim in the past has not help the country out of it troubles and I agree with Preaident Zuma that engagement is now needed rather than isolation.
I think that in five years time we will look back at 2010 as a year that progress started being made on getting Zim back on it’s feet.
We are past the point of no return and we should encourage rather than hinder that progress”.
February 25th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
And some other information sent to me from a recent land reform report:[-
There are several studies and reports on Zimbabwe’s recovery and the role land
reform will play in it. Rukuni’s 1994 Commission, UNDP’s 2008 ‘Comprehensive
Economic Recovery in Zimbabwe’ report in 2008 and the International Crisis Group’s
2004 report ‘Blood and Soil: Land, politics and prevention in Zimbabwe and South
Africa’ have all contributed to the debate surrounding Zimbabwe’s recovery and
illustrate the level of international support available to Zimbabwe once political
stability returns. The Africa APPG’s conclusions broadly concur with these reports.
An independent Land Commission must be established, accountable to Zimbabwe’s
Houses of Parliament. The first act of the Commission will be to carry out a land
audit. Once this has taken place then stakeholders and donors must meet to decide the
next steps.
In conjunction with the establishment of a Land Commission an independent
administrative land court must be established to manage disputes between farmers and
the government in a fair and transparent way.
Zimbabwe must move toward a single uniform land tenure system if it is to tackle the
chronic inequality in the country. The role of the international community must be to support and encourage Zimbabwean stakeholders, civil society organisations and land
experts to decide themselves between government acquisition or private ownership of
land.
It is imperative that the recovery programme is lead by Zimbabwean stakeholders and
that several donors provide assistance. By being the only donor to provide funds for
land purchases during the 1980s Britain opened itself up to unfair and politically
motivated criticism and ultimately became the scapegoat for President Mugabe’s
failing governance. Britain must be very careful not to repeat this and to ensure that
all future support is provided on a multilateral basis.
February 28th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Another (extremely long) one that came in via email – clearly delivered from someone with a lot of background knowledge:-
Zimbabwe 2010
(A colonial’s view)
I’m not exactly clear what question is being asked…………. I’ll assume it’s something to the following effect:
“Should global investment now be attracted to Zim; and, if so, why ?”
I’ll make some points and then draw some conclusions
1. FOREIGN RELATIONSHIPS
1.i UK
It would hardly be an original view to place much of Zim’s predicaments at the door of colonial past. A precis of my own perspective goes something like this:
* Cecil Rhodes, moving north from his diamond and gold mining enterprises in SA (and vaguely intent on creating a slash of red on the map, from Cape Town to Cairo), using a ragbag of carpetbaggers to subordinate the locals, successfully attained, from HMG, pretty much total autonomy over the country, under his own company (The British South Africa something or other) – altho supposedly answering to the British Parliament.. Rhodes had smelled gold, there for the taking. The predominant tribe in the West, an offshhoot of Chaka’s Zulus, the Ndebele, under their king, Lobengula, were easily bullied into submission by way of the gatling machine gun (in a single action, 4000 warriors were slaughterd with the loss of only two “Rhodies). However, gold having turned out to be not as prevalent as first thought, the incomers began to look at agriculture. Whites were then drawn from all quarters of the globe by the lure of free parcelling out of the fertile lands through the centre of the country.
* Fast forward to between the two world wars. Literally thousands of British artisans, attracted by well paid employ, low living costs, servants, climate, colonial government protection, etc, flocked to what by now was called Southern Rhodesia. As this settler influx progressed, so the country became further and further divided along racist lines, HMG (to its very great shame)showing a blind eye,
In the early fifties HMG was looking to extricate itself from Empire. A solution, half-cocked, in regard to the two Rhodesias and Nyasaland (Zim, Zam & Malawi), emerged as sufficiently palatable to all four parties to be given its head………… one aim being to allow the gradual development of inter-racial sharing of all elements of the three territories’ affairs. Regrettably (and again, I feel, in large part for want of HMG monitoring and involvement), barely any sharing sparked and, after 10 years of going nowhere, all three countries began agitating for break-up of the Federation, and independence for each, Whilst both N. Rhodesia, and Nyasaland, being colonies, and under full control of HMG’s Foreign Office, could be guided to independence, in the best interests of the local population (that is, so far as the all too rapid withdrawal of HMG would allow), In S. Rhodesia,, the whites, under the buffoon, Ian Smith, were in no mood to relinquish their extraordinarily comfortable, wholly racist-based, life-style……………and UDI ensued (under the mantra: not a single vote for a black man for a 1000 years).
UDI inevitably spawned insurgency ………… during which period Mugabe came to the fore as a much lauded terrorist leader. Eventually, upon capitulation by the whites, a democratic solution was argued out in the UK. This ultimately lead to a seemingly fair election (stage managed, to their credit, by the British) which resulted in favour of Mugabe – at the expense of the Ian Smith / Bishop Muzorewa coalition.
Upon assumption of power, and for the ensuing 20 years, Mugabe ran an apparently benign regime, from both black and white perspective. The biggest problem to unwind from colonial days was always going to be issues as regards land. Mugabe maintains that, upon handover to his government, HMG did offer substantial funds for the compensation of white farmers who might suffer compulsory handover of their estates. This has never materialised; the UK continues to robustly deny the claim.
Eventually, Mugabe, possibly sensing loss of power in further democratic elections, under pressure from terrorist veterans demanding the lands they’d been promised, and being, it seems, paranoid about retaining power, turned to unattractive means by which to ensure his continuance in position. The vets were given free reign to snatch farms, some ethnic cleansing took place with the elimination of many thousand Ndebele (followers of Joshua Nkomo) in the west of the country (Mugabe’s tribe is Shona ……….. predominant in the middle and east of the country), an army of thugs was recruited to intimidate the population in favour of his party, and he ensured the loyalty of police and army through privilege and monetary inducement.
The destruction of farm production, inevitably to follow, a run of serious droughts, and the abandonment of industry by external interests drove the economy into the ground. Foreign currency reserves evaporated and printed-paper inflation of unimaginable scale continued the rot.
Throughout the above descent into economic chaos the UK looked on without involvement, but with the imposition of sanctions.
I believe HMG to be wholly cognisant of its historical failings concerning Zimbabweans, and may be now showing signs of seeking how best to assist in bringing the country back to an even keel.
I’ll briefly mention a few other foreign influences:
1.ii SOUTH AFRICA
SA, in my view, has seldom, if ever, supported Zim, other than for entirely its own interests. It is a country with singularly greater tensions; not least because the black population, throughout the Apartheid years was never educated beyond our equivalent of primary school, and was never taught maths or science. SA did support the UDI initiatives at commencement but, under pressure from pan African interests, ultimately caused the capitulation to the rebels, by withdrawing all assistance to Smith’s battle. Strange though it may seen, also, Zim has long enjoyed far greater cordiality as between black and white (almost entirely absent in SA). There is now a border problem, with hoards of Zimbabweans fleeing the problems in their country, and entering SA illegally. I don’t see that SA would have any interest in helping to remove Mugabe ………… primarily because, throughout Africa, and that of course includes SA’s ruling party,( the ANC) Mugabe is still regarded as something of a freedom-fighter hero.
The alarming, large scale land grabs, with concomitant slaughter of white farmers, in the high veld north of Joburg, is seldom reported upon; but does highlight the relative insignificance of the perhaps over-reported incidences of a like nature in Zim.
1.iii CHINA
China, with its own foreseeable problems of primary resource starvation, is completely focussed on paving the way for future supplies. This entails buying their way into any regime allowing access ……….. they take no moralistic stance.
2. A FEW OBSERVATIONS
2.i As alluded to above, ZIM has, as part of its colonial heritage, a far better educated populace than it appears is generally recognised by the world
2.ii Though not immediately apparent from a distance, Zimbabweans do have positive feelings towards Britain. Their experience of the rest of the world has been entirely British influenced, they are familiar with the language, the legal system is British-based, administrative practices are all imported from Britain, and there tends to be, by some accounts of good provenance, a general and genuine admiration for many things British.
2.iii There is a far greater preponderance of modestly scaled, locally-based, business start-ups, throughout the country.
2.iii There is an enormous diaspora of well-educated, skilled and experienced Zimbabweans scattered throughout the world, gainfully employed, and most likely to return home once they see the economic and political climate significantly improving.
2.iv Some stability has been accepted to have emerged since the recent arrangement for sharing of power between Mugabe and Tsangerai (although not nearly as much as had at first been hoped)
2.v Zimbabwe is exceptionally wealthy in natural resources
2.vi Mugabe is 87 !!
3. A CONCLUSION
The MDC’s recent announcement that foreign enterprises are to be 51% owned by Zimbabwean interests is clearly pretty discouraging. This madness, in my view, will pass.
I would draw on experience of the growth and success of Hongkong to serve, in many respects, as the way forward. Concerning land, for example, were it all to be nationalised, then acquisition from the government, on satisfactory long-term, leasehold conditions, could be attractive. A satisfactory legal system, with recourse to fair appeal in respect of commercial matters, might readily emerge to assist development, etc etc.
Partnership, with Zimbabweans, must eventually be the way forward.
I believe, that once Mugabe’s influence fades (and which cannot be too far in the future now) early (and perhaps unduly bold) investors (particularly in land leases) may well, as in Hongkong, reap highly rewarding benefit overtime. At the same time enjoying a seriously benign climate, and possibly the most cordial of relationships with an essentially friendly populace of remarkable character.
March 9th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Apologies. A bit late to this debate. I live in Harare and am involved with investment. The country has been transformed since the introduction of the US dollar a year ago. The Zim dollar died then and is worthless. Businessmen can now get on and do business as in any ‘normal’ country. Recent results from companies involved in domestic demand ie supermarkets, retailers, beer suppliers etc have shown a rapid recovery. Reason being is that real wages have risen substantially with the end of hyperinflation. Then man in street can now afford goods. The investment going into the mines esp gold and platinum is substantial. Whilst the Telegraph reported white owned farms being taken at Xmas, it failed to report the number of young white farmers who have gone back to the land to grow tobacco and seed maize. So whilst all is not perfect, life is considerably better than it was a year ago and from my perspective, Harare is far more liveable in than freezing and wet London! Further, if you ignore politics, as you should try to do in the run up to the election in UK, life goes on happily! Hope that helps answer some questions! Maybe come and visit……..
March 9th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
Many thanks John, that all sounds quite positive then….maybe I will come for a visit and see for myself. Lx
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